April 2011

Genuinely Frightening

Submitted by Alex on Sun, 17/04/2011 - 15:27

So the Coalition's economic assumptions only work in the event of a renewed housing and consumer-debt bubble, and in fact the only sector of the housing market that looks like doing its part is the very bubbliest, buy-to-let. They're not the only ones.

S&P: Not Just a Blog, Not a Bad Credit Rating Agency

Submitted by Alex on Sun, 10/04/2011 - 13:59

Stable and Principled from July, 2010; we pointed out that even the not terribly independent OBR thought that the Government's budget numbers could only be hit through a renewed surge in property prices, construction, and consumer spending. The forecasts pencilled in higher receipts from stamp duty in the financial year 2013 than were reached at the peak of the bubble in 2007, and expected that the bulk of jobs growth would come from retailing and hospitality.

We Can't Risk The Confidence Of The Markets

Submitted by Alex on Sun, 10/04/2011 - 14:06

We mentioned that home buyers' risk appetite appears to shift in May, 2010. Via Mike Konczal, it appears that some sort of shock to business confidence occurred about the same time.

The Last Budget

Submitted by Alex on Sun, 10/04/2011 - 14:53

Obviously, budget blogging is pretty late to the party. But I think there's a way in which not bothering with the budget is a valid point. It's been commonplace for years to say that budget day isn't what it used to be, but this year might have been designed to dramatise the point. There was a controversial emergency budget, and then there was a far more controversial Comprehensive Spending Review. And then there was an utterly inconsequential budget. Of course, the media faff was as noisy as ever. When the dust settled, though, it became clear that the budget was essentially a no-decision.

Statements which are no longer operative

Submitted by Alex on Sun, 10/04/2011 - 15:12

It seems that some of the defence cuts may be undeliverable. It was widely expected that the government's new planning assumptions would mean a second wave of defence cuts in MOD Planning Round 11 this year, but this now seems to have been kiboshed.